The Coming Federal Election.

[Rooster1908]

Aaaah the silence.

I feel as though I should almost be thankful towards the Donald as he's accidentally led to the mass slaughter of conservative candidates worldwide, following the least successful first 100 days of a presidency in recent history.

That and Albo/Chalmers/Gallagher have skilfully steered our economy through the storm, resulting in stability for all, flipping coalition deficits into surpluses and lowering interest rates.

We'll see how things go over the weekend but I think we can comfortably agree that Albo is certainly not the worst PM in history. In fact... he's arguably the best in modern history, given that none have been re-elected since Howard.

Stability is an excellent leadership quality!!! Albo's like having a Bellamy at the helm. People hate how he's always beating their team, but he's a bloody good leader and everybody he's aided has gone on to be more successful as a result.

Much better than having an angry ant coach whose policy is to sack everybody, put the existing players on notice, blame the refs every time he loses and create a cult of dedicated haters. Dutton would certainly be a bottom-8 coach on form.

Wow , never actually realised you had a sense of humour .

[horrie hastings]

I have already voted but will go around and hopefully get a democracy sausage and watch the shenanigans from the people giving out the how and who to vote for cards when the better half goes and votes on Saturday morning. as i said hopefully get a democracy sausage as the last time i went around to the school around the corner they had fancy foods and cakes for sale but no sausage sizzle, all i want is a sausage on white bread with onion , tomato sauce and maybe a bit of mustard but i digress. I usually postal vote due to working on Saturdays but not working this Saturday but glad i have already got it out of the way.

Jack if you are getting lots of requests i hope you are down at your local polling place on Saturday advising the undecided voters which way to vote.

As for Saturday night i will be sitting down with some mezze dinner or lasagne or cannelloni with a couple of glasses of wine and watch Antony Green crunch the numbers.

[mightyrooster]

I don’t have much more to add. I’ll be glad when the vote is over and then on Saturday night I’ll be switching between watching magic round and updates from the tally room. It will be a close race I think and the pre polling isn’t always accurate. But I’m fairly confident nothing much is going to change in the three Canberra seats.

[caz]

Getting a lot of requests, Jack what's really going on with the election? How should I vote? Who's telling the truth? Well, I can't tell you how to vote, but I'll just give my observations on where we are at, and some of the key drivers at play.

There have been some great victories for conservatives or common sense values against the polls recently - see the Voice referendum, and Donald Trumps whitewash in the US. If the polls/bookies are right, this one is headed in a different direction towards the activist left. And some of us dined out on these results, so we can expect our left leaning Chookpenners to get their fill this time.

Why did the polls change so much from February?
Interesting as Albanese himself is still hugely unpopular. But the Libs haven't been able to capitalise on this. Their strategists and advisors needed to keep the messages very simple and consistent, not fly with the latest thought bubble. The discourse that hurt them like wfh changes and cuts to the public service needed better marketing and clarity. The policies themselves were fine but without clear definition and boundaries, the left turned it into another scare campaign. Another thing that Labor has been able to do in the last few months is change the election from a referendum on Albanese and his 3 year performance to one on Peter Dutton. It was their only hope really. Then there have been the lies....its reached epidemic proportions in this campaign. Mediscare, nuclear energy, wfh/PS cuts and President Trump are topics where lying was made an art form by the Labour Party/Greens/Teals alliance. The other big factor has been the largely left leaning media. The pack of hounds that is the Canberra press gallery have just been relentless every day not being journalists but basically activists attacking Mr. Dutton. To his credit he has held his nerve and continued to prosecute his case for election. Then there's the nightly news grabs which are incredibly one-sided, and of course have some effect on those half paying attention.

The main issues for me
Social Cohesion/Immigration - the difference between our post war immigration to the post Whitlam years is crucial. The people that were welcomed into Australia pre 1970s came in more under a policy of assimilation where they loved their new country and worked hard to blend their own history and culture, but mainly embracing their new home. Now our immigration is based purely on multiculturalism with no expectation or education of making your new home and it's culture your priority. We have seen the fruits of this starkly in recent years. Our immigration levels are off the charts and our open door policy to Gazans while the rest of the world closed the door speaks for itself.

Defence/Security - The growing threats posed by Chinese and Russian powers are real. We desperately need a strong leader in these times, and Albanese has demonstrated in the last 3 years he is just not up to this task. He dodges, weaves and blatantly lies about issues on security. There will inevitably, in the not too distant future, be another conflict where we will be called to make some tough decisions. God help us.

Weakness and Lies - I know politicians over the years can almost all be accused of fiddling with the truth. But this bloke has taken it to a new level. Qualities of strength and integrity are what we desperately need in our leaders of today. And he is the exact opposite of that. Say what you like of Mr. Dutton be he clearly outranks Albo in these qualities. Yes, I know, it wouldn't be hard.

Energy Policy - the Left obsession with climate change and renewables reliance is killing our economy. The flow on effects of investment in renewable energy that is expensive and unreliable and the demonisation of our natural resources is dangerous and wasteful. The scare campaign on nuclear is mindless ideological rhetoric that is not shared by other countries using nuclear to power their nations. They don't call him Blackout Bowen for nothing. Spain says hi...got blacked out using 70% renewables in their grid, Albo wants ours to be at 83%. Candles at the ready.

Who wins?
It feels like we are headed towards minority government. Messy, scary. I think some independents/minors will pick up seats unexpectedly. I actually think Mr Dutton would make a very good PM for these times, but if he loses this election he may never get the chance.

The next 3 years
Turbulent. Whoever wins will need to face issues of terror/unrest, global conflicts and getting it right on energy policy.

Anyway, what happens will! If you're waiting till Saturday to cast your vote, enjoy your democracy sausage.

'dear jfc, i have nfi. please help me big daddy'? but no, all good. there's some food for thought in your post.

it's too early to comment conclusively. let's wait and see what happens on sat. but yeah, why have the polls changed around?

i'm surprised they've changed so much. at times the coalition's primary vote has been less than under morrison. that would be a terrible result for the coalition if it happens.
why? probably 2 main reasons -
1) the fact that it's a one term government. it's not so much that aussies want to give a government a fair go, it's more that they don't want to reward still remembered incompetence.
2) trump. dutton was a bit unlucky with this but it was his choice to identify himself with trump

it would be wrong for the libs to play the victim, to complain about the media etc. they would have done better to spell out their policies. i disagree that their wfh and nuclear policies are good and suffered from a cynical scare campaign. what's wrong with working from home? seems like dutton was just on an anti-public servants rant, and the nuclear policy seems pretty crazy to me. seems like dutton was prepared to take a punt on a risky policy at a time when he had little chance of winning.
dutton's not the man to navigate the stormy foreign affairs situation. we need a nuanced attitude towards china at a time when the u.s. alliance looks shaky.

[Jacks Fur Coat]

I have already voted but will go around and hopefully get a democracy sausage and watch the shenanigans from the people giving out the how and who to vote for cards when the better half goes and votes on Saturday morning. as i said hopefully get a democracy sausage as the last time i went around to the school around the corner they had fancy foods and cakes for sale but no sausage sizzle, all i want is a sausage on white bread with onion , tomato sauce and maybe a bit of mustard but i digress. I usually postal vote due to working on Saturdays but not working this Saturday but glad i have already got it out of the way.

Jack if you are getting lots of requests i hope you are down at your local polling place on Saturday advising the undecided voters which way to vote.

As for Saturday night i will be sitting down with some mezze dinner or lasagne or cannelloni with a couple of glasses of wine and watch Antony Green crunch the numbers.

Do you think they will benefit from my guidance H? Always happy to help

[Random Rooster]

Wow Jack, it seems that Dutton is the total package! He is a man of truth, integrity and his policies are on point. ....while on the other side is sneaky, lying Albo who, if he wins, it will be because of the left wing media. Must be some pretty effective media on the left considering News Ltd controls 63% of Australia's media.

I wonder where the bookies are getting their info from? Surely its going to be a lot closer than this market suggests

[Crab]

I think Labour will get back in actually . Not from trustworthiness or brilliant policy . But, because, the women of Australia 'just don't like the look of him ' re Dutton. I'm voting Lib because I do not want massive wind farms in our pristine Port Stephens waters, right in the middle of prime marlin fishing grounds and the whales migratory route. Hope I'm wrong !

[Jacks Fur Coat]

I think Labour will get back in actually . Not from trustworthiness or brilliant policy . But, because, the women of Australia 'just don't like the look of him ' re Dutton. I'm voting Lib because I do not want massive wind farms in our pristine Port Stephens waters, right in the middle of prime marlin fishing grounds and the whales migratory route. Hope I'm wrong !

I think we should stick em in Zali Steggles backyard. When the blow is low, she could stick a ski slope on em and relive when Australia actually respected her.

[Crab]

I think we should stick em in Zali Steggles backyard. When the blow is low, she could stick a ski slope on em and relive when Australia actually respected her.

Absolutely Jack a brilliant idea !
Take a moment to appreciate the irony of a No vote for Labor and the Greens for their environmentally toxic policies ..

[Jacks Fur Coat]

Absolutely Jack a brilliant idea !
Take a moment to appreciate the irony of a No vote for Labor and the Greens for their environmentally toxic policies ..

It's not lost on me mate. They were originally the party that actually gave a shit about the environment, think Bob Browns days. Now they just want to royally fck it up and stand in pious judgement of anyone opposing their ideological mayhem. Minority Labor/Greens pship....we'll have a turbine on every street corner.

[Random Rooster]

I think we should stick em in Zali Steggles backyard. When the blow is low, she could stick a ski slope on em and relive when Australia actually respected her.

Id say the voters of Warringah respect her....and are certainly well and truly over "not even one term Tony" Abbott.

I watched Sharri Markson tonight. I think she read your #1064 post today before going on air because content was almost identical!

Should Dutton lose on the weekend, who would you pick to leader the party next up? ( assuming Dutton gets the flick)

[Billy Gunn]

If the odds are correct and it is a majority Labor victory it has to be the biggest nose dive in recent memory.

Sometimes the betting industry gets it wrong. In 2016 Hillary was at a ridiculous price early on election day, from memory Trump got out to $6+ and within a few hours it swung quickly.

[Jacks Fur Coat]

Id say the voters of Warringah respect her....and are certainly well and truly over "not even one term Tony" Abbott.

I watched Sharri Markson tonight. I think she read your #1064 post today before going on air because content was almost identical!

Should Dutton lose on the weekend, who would you pick to leader the party next up? ( assuming Dutton gets the flick)

Haha.. I luv Sharri. Funnily enough I did send her a lengthy email prior to the anti-semitism Summit with some thoughts, maybe she took these on!

I hope Pistol stays on, but it will depend on the scale of the loss and whether the party thinks he can lead them to a victory or not. I like cats like Jacinta, Alex Antic and James Paterson. All talented and smart. From the senate side though, not totally sure how those machinations work in opposition.

[Random Rooster]

Haha.. I luv Sharri. Funnily enough I did send her a lengthy email prior to the anti-semitism Summit with some thoughts, maybe she took these on!

I hope Pistol stays on, but it will depend on the scale of the loss and whether the party thinks he can lead them to a victory or not. I like cats like Jacinta, Alex Antic and James Paterson. All talented and smart. From the senate side though, not totally sure how those machinations work in opposition.

You're conceding early.....stranger things have happened in politics than a rank outsider winning. Didn't Sportsbet pay out on Bill Shorten early....only to be burnt?

Good luck to both of the parties. The best thing is that whoever does lose will accept it and move on....and the country will keep moving on

[ism22]

It’s wild to think about, but the 2025 election has some serious 1987 vibes.

Back then, Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen, Premier of Queensland, decided he was going to run for PM and “save” Australia. His rogue “Joh for Canberra” crusade completely derailed the Coalition—splitting the Nationals and Liberals, confusing voters, and handing Bob Hawke’s Labor an easier path to victory. The result? Labor returned to power, and political historians still laugh about how Sir Joh accidentally helped the very party he despised.

Fast forward to 2025: enter Donald Trump—loud, polarising, and sticking his nose into Australian politics via social media and right-wing media circuits. His endorsements, rhetoric, and influence over fringe candidates might not have been as direct as Sir Joh’s campaign, but the effect feels eerily similar: fracturing the conservative message, pushing moderate voters away, and boosting Labor’s credibility by contrast.

Labor won't officially win because of Trump—but you’d have to admit, they'll probably send him a quiet thank-you text on election night.

Anyone else see the parallels? Or are we just seeing history with rose-coloured hindsight?