Sutton

[Bigchook]

If you don't think there is something up when we have won about 4 of the last 55 penalty counts out of Sydney across the past decade, then I cannot help you. This is with multiple coaches and completely different rosters. 11 years since we have won the penalty count against the Warriors in NZ. The penalty count in that time. Warriors 100 - Roosters 47.

So what are you saying? There's a systematic conspiracy within the nrl to penalise us out of the game because..?
Stats will only ever tell part of the story. 11 years? What's that.. About 7 games? Regardless of what you believe, we shoot ourselves in the foot and I'd prefer to own our mistakes and aim to be better then blame an external factor beyond our control. I'll leave the tin hats for you blokes.

[Cockadoodledoo]

So what are you saying? There's a systematic conspiracy within the nrl to penalise us out of the game because..?
Stats will only ever tell part of the story. 11 years? What's that.. About 7 games? Regardless of what you believe, we shoot ourselves in the foot and I'd prefer to own our mistakes and aim to be better then blame an external factor beyond our control. I'll leave the tin hats for you blokes.

Different playing rosters, different coaches, same results.. It is about 10 games. I guess with people like you, they can get away with it. I can imagine you months ago posting on the financial forums how a Banking Royal Commission would be a waste of time because financial institutions are all clean and pure as the white of snow. You probably also post on the political forums how honest politicians are. Any chance you want to buy a harbour bridge? I have one, it's going cheap.

[NorfolkStreetKid]

Some of the dribble you see on here is priceless.

[Bigchook]

Different playing rosters, different coaches, same results.. It is about 10 games. I guess with people like you, they can get away with it. I can imagine you months ago posting on the financial forums how a Banking Royal Commission would be a waste of time because financial institutions are all clean and pure as the white of snow. You probably also post on the political forums how honest politicians are. Any chance you want to buy a harbour bridge? I have one, it's going cheap.

What's the agenda then? And it's not some premiership merry go round because apparently we're the only side penalised. What's the motive.

[Tommy Smith]

What's the agenda then? And it's not some premiership merry go round because apparently we're the only side penalised. What's the motive.

You do realise that statistically speaking, penalty counts won and lost over time should be relatively even, right?

But taking into account home town advantage which is a known phenomenon let's be generous and say it should be 2 to 1 against; which would be W 16 L 32.

That's 2 to 1 against. We stand at W 5 L 43, which is almost 8.5 to 1 against. Tin foil hats indeed. Anyone who understands stats knows that those figures are very very likely due to bias; as they're too skewed to be a natural occurence.

Perhaps I'll show you the Rabbitohs stats in comparison. Just a coincidence I'm sure that their figures are significantly better than ours.

Also, before Rothfields article in 2015 I showed that we had gone something like 35 games in a row without receiving more than 7 penalties in a game. I checked every other clubs streaks - their last 3 actually - and the average for the league was about every 2-3 games they'd receive 8+ pens.

So compare the league average of 2-3 vs our streak at the time of about 35. Tin foil hats indeed. As mentioned it took an article from Rothfield to dramatically change this which is only further proof of how susceptible to outside forces the referees are.

[Bigchook]

You do realise that statistically speaking, penalty counts won and lost over time should be relatively even, right?

But taking into account home town advantage which is a known phenomenon let's be generous and say it should be 2 to 1 against; which would be W 16 L 32.

That's 2 to 1 against. We stand at W 5 L 43, which is almost 8.5 to 1 against. Tin foil hats indeed. Anyone who understands stats knows that those figures are very very likely due to bias; as they're too skewed to be a natural occurence.

Perhaps I'll show you the Rabbitohs stats in comparison. Just a coincidence I'm sure that their figures are significantly better than ours.

Also, before Rothfields article in 2015 I showed that we had gone something like 35 games in a row without receiving more than 7 penalties in a game. I checked every other clubs streaks - their last 3 actually - and the average for the league was about every 2-3 games they'd receive 8+ pens.

So compare the league average of 2-3 vs our streak at the time of about 35. Tin foil hats indeed. As mentioned it took an article from Rothfield to dramatically change this which is only further proof of how susceptible to outside forces the referees are.

You state these statistics and then infer that bias is fact. Again, why is there bias? What is the purpose?

[Bigchook]

And I'll disagree with the notion that penalty counts should be close to even over time. Poorly disciplined teams shouldn't suddenly win half as many penalty counts as well drilled sides. What happens if our stats reversed over the next 50 odd games? Is it just variance?

[Tommy Smith]

In 2014 we had a very dominant forward pack that owned the ruck and yet we received by far the fewest penalties in the comp.

Souffs in comparison were the media and NRL darlings and received the most in the NRL era - about 100 more penalties than us that year.

Yes, that absolutely 100% is bias.

You seem to be assuming that referees are above basic human flaws. Above basic human bias to favour some over others.

They are not. And 2014 was the height of these human biases that saw one team - Souffs - favoured like no team has been in the NRL era. And another team - the Roosters - sabotaged like no other.

Fact check:
Souffs received 219 @ 8.11 per game. Most by far.
Roosters received 135 @ 5 per game. Least by far.

Now gee it's almost like they hated the idea of a certain team going b2b, thus ruining their dream fairytale.

They even rung that stupid bell at the GF ffs. It was like a Souffs home game. NRL execs openly cheered at the ground when Souffs beat us on the back of that 6 nil 2nd half pen count in the prelim.

No tin foil hats. Just cold hard facts that illuminate the blatant bias.

[BallyChook]

And I'll disagree with the notion that penalty counts should be close to even over time.Poorly disciplined teams shouldn't suddenly win half as many penalty counts as well drilled sides. What happens if our stats reversed over the next 50 odd games? Is it just variance?

Can you explain though why so many other poorly disciplined teams who come up against us become magically well disciplined? It's not just about us being poorly disciplined. The statistical anomaly against us over the last 10 or so years is absurd and in my opinion can't just be dismissed that it's all our own fault. You deny it's bias (conscious or unconscious). Fair enough. But if it's not bias what is then? Incompetence? And, statistically speaking, if our stats reverse over the next 50 games I'll be gobsmacked.

[ism22]

You do realise that statistically speaking, penalty counts won and lost over time should be relatively even, right?

Why should they be even though?

For example the Storm have been a rigged team that has been over the cap for roughly half of their existence. A few other teams are similar, so will look more disciplined on the stats.

IMO it would take a lot more effort than the refs are capable of to have some conspiracy against Easts.

[Tommy Smith]

Number of times 8 or more pens received in a game in 2014:

Roosters - 1 (rnd 2)
Souffs - 16

Yep. That's totally natural.

[Cockadoodledoo]

And I'll disagree with the notion that penalty counts should be close to even over time. Poorly disciplined teams shouldn't suddenly win half as many penalty counts as well drilled sides. What happens if our stats reversed over the next 50 odd games? Is it just variance?

Are we poorly disciplined? Or do we just concede more penalties than other teams? It seems strange that over multiple rosters and different coaches we would have worse discipline than other teams. Also I see you didn't touch on the penalties we don't receive. as Tommy said, we went 35 games in a row where we received less than 7 penalties. Receiving penalties is not related to our discipline, it is the oppositions discipline. Effectively they become more disciplined when they play us. Funnily the game after Rothfield's article, we received more than 7 penalties. As to the next 50 games, what's the point of discussing what ifs? Only relevant to discuss what has actually happened over more than the last decade.

[Bigchook]

In 2014 we had a very dominant forward pack that owned the ruck and yet we received by far the fewest penalties in the comp.

Souffs in comparison were the media and NRL darlings and received the most in the NRL era - about 100 more penalties than us that year.

Yes, that absolutely 100% is bias.

You seem to be assuming that referees are above basic human flaws. Above basic human bias to favour some over others.

They are not. And 2014 was the height of these human biases that saw one team - Souffs - favoured like no team has been in the NRL era. And another team - the Roosters - sabotaged like no other.

Fact check:
Souffs received 219 @ 8.11 per game. Most by far.
Roosters received 135 @ 5 per game. Least by far.

Now gee it's almost like they hated the idea of a certain team going b2b, thus ruining their dream fairytale.

They even rung that stupid bell at the GF ffs. It was like a Souffs home game. NRL execs openly cheered at the ground when Souffs beat us on the back of that 6 nil 2nd half pen count in the prelim.

No tin foil hats. Just cold hard facts that illuminate the blatant bias.

Its a statistical anomaly no doubt. It's bizarre. I would argue that we are an undisciplined side. Not so much that would explain that stat though. You're saying it's 100% bias. That over a lengthy period the nrl has consciously instructed some 20-30 referees to penalise us. That's tin hat stuff. Also I'd like to know why you believe this would be the case and how it helps the nrl in any way..

Like I said it's a horrible stat. But I'm not a conspiracy theorist and I don't believe it's systematic.

[Weigold]

Game managers using tip sheets = bias. Pretty simple.

[Bigchook]

Game managers using tip sheets = bias. Pretty simple.

That doesn't explain anything. So no, not simple.