the farrer by-election

[caz]

so, with sussan ley being dumped by the libs her seat is up for grabs and it's looking like one of the most interesting by-elections in recent memory.
the coalition has been overtaken by one nation in the polls - will that translate to getting a candidate elected?
will an independent win the day?
will the nats reclaim tim fischer's old seat?
will labor run?

if i was a cautious bookmaker i'd frame it:

labor $10000000000000.00
michelle milthorpe (ind) $1.01
nats $5.00
libs $2.00
one nation $1.02
independent $1.04

[rcptn]

so, with sussan ley being dumped by the libs her seat is up for grabs and it's looking like one of the most interesting by-elections in recent memory.
the coalition has been overtaken by one nation in the polls - will that translate to getting a candidate elected?
will an independent win the day?
will the nats reclaim tim fischer's old seat?
will labor run?

if i was a cautious bookmaker i'd frame it:

labor $10000000000000.00
michelle milthorpe (ind) $1.01
nats $5.00
libs $2.00
one nation $1.02
independent $1.04

you don't know how odds market work you cannot have 3 candidates with over 90 percent chance of winning

[rcptn]

Real odds from Sportsbet not some lefty who is clueless with numbers
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics

Nationals
2.00
Independent
3.00
One Nation
4.50
Liberal Party
4.75
Labor
34.00
Greens
67.00

What do you think of those Caz?
Who would you back?

[caz]

hey, if i'm the bookmaker i can offer whatever odds i want.
surprised sportsbet has the nats as the favourite. maybe they've got inside knowledge on who the candidates are.
my revised odds would be

labor $10000000000000.00
michelle milthorpe (ind) $1.01
nats $1.03
libs $2.00
one nation $1.02
independent $1.04

[caz]

the point is what will the political landscape look like after the by-election?
are we seeing the transformation of right wing politics away from established parties?
will one nation have the traction here that farage and maga have had overseas? can one nation convert success in the opinion polls to the ballot box?

[rcptn]

I Doubt One Nation will sustain support above 20% at the next federal election I think they will probably get around 15% which should get them a bunch of new senators but few if any seats in the house of reps and that's coming from someone who has voted for them since 2013 after multiple decades voting Liberal. I stopped voting Liberal because of the abandonment economic responsibility and the clinging to the green religion at federal and state level.

[caz]

interesting take rcptn. this by-election is kind of crucial for one nation. maybe their opinion poll popularity won't translate into ballot box success at a general election, but by-elections are different and if they don't make the final two candidates when others have been eliminated it would be a disappointment for them. if they do, or win it, it will rock the political orthodoxies.

looks like there are four candidates who have a genuine shot at winning. maybe five if another high profile independent throws their hat into the ring. the betting seems to be putting history ahead of recent polling but no one will really have an idea until candidates are announced and the first opinion polls come in

[rcptn]

interesting take rcptn. this by-election is kind of crucial for one nation. maybe their opinion poll popularity won't translate into ballot box success at a general election, but by-elections are different and if they don't make the final two candidates when others have been eliminated it would be a disappointment for them. if they do, or win it, it will rock the political orthodoxies.

looks like there are four candidates who have a genuine shot at winning. maybe five if another high profile independent throws their hat into the ring. the betting seems to be putting history ahead of recent polling but no one will really have an idea until candidates are announced and the first opinion polls come in

Has the date been set yet?