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Stats Insider: Grand Final analysis

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  • Stats Insider: Grand Final analysis

    Congratulations to St George Illawarra for becoming premiers in 2010 with an impressive win over the Sydney Roosters last Sunday.

    The Dragons were a stats man’s dream – playing basic football all season based on exceptional defence and completion rates. They proved rugby league is still a simple game if you commit to the basics.

    Commiserations to the Roosters, who were amazing considering their position last season in winning just five games… they were a dead-set rabble back then.

    They were more than worthy grand finalists and shape up as a side that could get much better with another year of cohesion behind them.

    Anyway, the big one turned out to be a game of two halves. While most pundits might say the Dragons won the match in the second half, the platform for their victory was actually set in the first half, despite their trailing 8-6 at the break.

    The Roosters had enough ball to be ahead by 12 or more points and the fact they weren’t gave Wayne Bennett the ammunition to help his men home.

    St George Illawarra didn’t allow a single point past them in all three second halves of football during the finals – simply brilliant. Here are the numbers from the big game…

    FIRST HALF
    The Dragons completed just 58 per cent of their sets in the opening half – with a whopping 10 errors giving them all sorts of trouble. The Roosters, on the other hand, completed 89 per cent of their sets of six after just three errors… but came up with just two more points on the board.

    The possession was 54 per cent/46 per cent in favour of the Roosters. Despite having much less ball, the Dragons gained 545 metres across the ground – not all that far behind the Roosters’ 590 metres.

    The Dragons were forced into making 34 more tackles than the Roosters – almost six sets worth – yet still missed just 10 tackles compared to the Roosters’ 12. But they did have 11 ineffective tackles compared to the Roosters’ five.

    Despite wet conditions the Roosters knocked out six offloads in the opening half, the Dragons four.

    The Roosters had the only line-break of the first half – although the Dragons powered through 12 tackle-breaks to the Roosters’ 10.

    The Roosters’ kicking game was dominant – making 403 metres to the Dragons’ 226 metres. (And remember, the Dragons were by far the biggest kicking team in the NRL all year...)

    With these stats in their favour the Roosters really needed to be doing much better than just an 8-6 lead. Todd Carney missed both conversions, which certainly didn’t help proceedings. But by all rights they would have wanted probably two more tries with this match ball. Why? Because invariably possession evens up over a game… and the Dragons were ready to pounce.

    SECOND HALF
    The Dragons completed an impressive 90 per cent of sets in the second half compared to the Roosters’ 50 per cent. The difference between the two clubs was the Dragons used the possession to score 26 unanswered points.

    Possession percentages actually favoured the Dragons 63/37 in the second half, making it very hard for the Roosters to stay in the contest. They made six errors compared to the Dragons’ three.

    The Dragons made 793 metres across the ground, the Roosters just 500 metres.

    The Dragons made six line-breaks, the Roosters none. The Dragons added 27 second-half tackle-breaks, the Roosters just seven.

    The Roosters were forced to make 82 more tackles, or almost 14 more sets of six – no team can win in these circumstances. The Dragons missed seven tackles, the Roosters 26.

    The Roosters still led the offloads with four second-half offloads to the Dragons’ three.

    The Dragons’ kicking game came to life with 443 metres gained compared to the Roosters’ 148 metres.

    With these numbers it is no wonder the Dragons finished over the top of the Roosters to grab their first premiership.

    Time to give a shout out to the top individuals from the game: Darius Boyd won the Clive Churchill Medal – he made 107 metres, had a try assist and a tackle-break.

    But others with big numbers included:
    Jason Nightingale – their two-try hero ran for a massive game-high 168 metres, plus he added 10 tackle-breaks, 12 tackles, an offload and three line-breaks.

    Ben Creagh – while he may have dropped the ball a few times Creagh was tough on the way to 149 metres, the most territory by any forward in the game. He added five tackle-breaks and 10 tackles.

    Ben Hornby – the skipper offered a try assist, three tackle-breaks, 16 tackles, a line-break and an offload. Plus one hell of a catch from a threatening bomb!

    Dean Young – made a team-high 40 tackles and 84 metres while adding a try, a line-break and three tackle-breaks.

    Matt Cooper (110m) and Neville Costigan (119m) also ran for triple figures.

    For the Roosters, fullback Anthony Minichiello made 142 metres and winger Sam Perrett made 167 metres, the only two in triple figures. Jake Friend made a game-high 56 tackles.

    So the season is done for another year… what will we all do? Bring on the Four Nations!

  • #2
    What the stats don't show is the massive impact of the dud calls in the first half. Agree it gave them the ammo and they are good enough execute in the second half.
    Alcohol never solved any life problems.....then again neither did milk.

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    • #3
      The Merge might be a statistician's dream but they are a fan's nightmare. They are the most boring Premiers in recent memory.
      FONK

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      • #4
        Yes Fletch thats the official version lets try incorporating the real story.

        Morris feet into touch before first dragon try. Therefore no try occurs ...Roosters possession . Roosters now score first unconverted try by Braith Roosters lead 4-0.

        Aubusson scores unconverted try roosters lead 8-0.

        Leiluas disallowed try....but pass backwards out of Carneys and then flat normally allowed , say unconverted by todd ...Roosters 12-0 halftime the correct score.

        2nd half Dragons converted try Roosters lead 12-6.

        58th Minute Mini tackled before recieving ball no penalty..With apenalty Roosters lead 14-6.

        Nightingale scores off forward pass from Hornby.. no try.

        And then the rain begins......who Knows what happens to the scoring after that But Youngs try with 3 markers Perrets push in the back and no penalty......

        I wonder if there was any betting to produce a result to sting some big time million dollar bets on the roosters ??

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        • #5
          Originally posted by gragra View Post
          Yes Fletch thats the official version lets try incorporating the real story.

          Morris feet into touch before first dragon try. Therefore no try occurs ...Roosters possession . Roosters now score first unconverted try by Braith Roosters lead 4-0.

          Aubusson scores unconverted try roosters lead 8-0.

          Leiluas disallowed try....but pass backwards out of Carneys and then flat normally allowed , say unconverted by todd ...Roosters 12-0 halftime the correct score.

          2nd half Dragons converted try Roosters lead 12-6.

          58th Minute Mini tackled before recieving ball no penalty..With apenalty Roosters lead 14-6.

          Nightingale scores off forward pass from Hornby.. no try.

          And then the rain begins......who Knows what happens to the scoring after that But Youngs try with 3 markers Perrets push in the back and no penalty......

          I wonder if there was any betting to produce a result to sting some big time million dollar bets on the roosters ??
          For the Roosters to be awarded a try it had to be clear-cut and infallible on video whilst the Dragons just had to get the ball over, no matter how, granted the Anasta try but it obviously was stripped by Soward trying to kick it out of the wingers hand. There was no benefit of the doubt whatsoever on the Carney pass, not an even a look at the video ref. That's what I find so perplexing.

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          • #6
            Should have been over by half-time off those stats, ugh.

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            • #7
              I commend anyone who can actually analyse the GF this close to the loss.

              I have a total media ban (the Chookpen excepted), refuse to watch or read about 'the game highlights' and won't even talk to anyone about the game unless they support the Roosters....

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              • #8
                I am with you - feel devastated, hate seeing anything with the red and white referee's pets on it, turn off TV if it looks like the red and whites are on, haven't bought a paper and haven't read anything online except the chook pen. Having said that, awful as the loss was I wouldn't change the last five weeks leading up to the GF for anything.

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                • #9
                  [QUOTE=fletch;89084. While most pundits might say the Dragons won the match in the second half, the platform for their victory was actually set in the first half, despite their trailing 8-6 at the break.
                  [/QUOTE]

                  THose pundits should be telling us that the Roosters should have up at least been 8 zip at the break. The Merge may well have been very nervous and continued their error ridden ways throughout the second half.

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                  • #10
                    Nice one Fletch, thanks for taking the time to post this.

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                    • #11
                      If we're going to be fair minded about it, we have to thow into the equation the dropped ball by Creagh which was actually punched out by Perrett in the lead up to the Anasta try.

                      I still can't believe the number of people who reckon Soward wasn't playing at the ball with his legs in the lead-up to the Anasta try. You clearly see him swing his knees around to try and get underneath Leilua and dislodge the ball. I heard Graeme Hughes say that Leilua placed it on his legs and lost control when that is clearly not the case. As soon as Brandy and Daley saw it, they both agreed that Soward had played at the ball and it should be a fair try.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Fleabag Fletch View Post
                        I commend anyone who can actually analyse the GF this close to the loss.
                        As do I, it would just make me madder than I still am to subject myself to watching it off the replay for the first time.

                        Originally posted by Fleabag Fletch View Post
                        I have a total media ban (the Chookpen excepted), refuse to watch or read about 'the game highlights' and won't even talk to anyone about the game unless they support the Roosters....
                        Ah, that is my approach. It has kept me sane.
                        "The price of freedom is eternal vigilance."

                        Thomas Jefferson

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Headless Chook View Post
                          If we're going to be fair minded about it, we have to thow into the equation the dropped ball by Creagh which was actually punched out by Perrett in the lead up to the Anasta try.
                          I haven't seen the incident off the replay so I can't comment but if indeed Perrett dislodged the ball from the fairy's grasp and it was missed by the officials, then, I'm flabbergasted.
                          "The price of freedom is eternal vigilance."

                          Thomas Jefferson

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                          • #14
                            The Perrett/Creagh tackle is one of those 50/50 calls tbh.......Perrett isn't looking at the ball and it's impossible to say whether he intended to punch it out or wrap it up, Creagh is also holding the ball in one hand away from his body which makes it vulnerable to being dislodged from even the most minor of contacts. He had also just been rattled by FPN in the initial contact which probably lead the referee to believing he dropped it as he fell, discretionary call that referees are bound to get wrong from time to time - every rugby league fan can accept these.

                            I can't accept blatant shit like the two feet out whilst in contact with the ball, push in the back, intentional forward passes to players in an offside position, try awarded off a clear knock on etc etc etc decisions being wrong - it just turns the match into a big "WHAT IF" farce.

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