Will 2025 be 2016 all over again

[Carlos Parra]

Aren't Penrith losing 7 or 8 players?

I don't think we've got it that bad on the player front, but the coaching front is another problem.

[Chook2]

How does that work?

Front load contracts
so you just pay guys earlier and then the following year you can load up as you have paid out more money in 2025 on current contracted players wages and then in 2026 they don’t need to be paid as much and you can bring more guys in
it creates a false sense of salary cap but this year you can pay 97% of the cap with paying more for current guys and then in 2026 have another $1-2m over the cap

[Rooster_6]

How does that work?

Use Spencer Leniu as an example on a 3yr contract over 3 years, pay him more next year and then benefit with more space in the cap the following two years.

	2025	2026	2027	Total
Current	600k	600k	600k	1.8m
Front Load	800k	500k	500k	1.8m

[Bates]

Front load contracts
so you just pay guys earlier and then the following year you can load up as you have paid out more money in 2025 on current contracted players wages and then in 2026 they don’t need to be paid as much and you can bring more guys in
it creates a false sense of salary cap but this year you can pay 97% of the cap with paying more for current guys and then in 2026 have another $1-2m over the cap

Total salary cap for 2025 is $11,800,000. You must spend 97.5%. Net amount available the following year if you spend 97.5% of your salary cap for 2025 would be $295,000.

[Chook2]

Total salary cap for 2025 is $11,800,000. You must spend 97.5%. Net amount available the following year if you spend 97.5% of your salary cap for 2025 would be $295,000.

Yes so if you can’t sign anyone bring forward payment of a few players then they will be getting less in the other years for their contracts
plus then you can spend bigger on players in the future and in 26-27 could have another $1m of talent under the salary cap

[Bates]

Cheers R6 and Chook2.

Hard to find any info on this.

[MKCS]

Maybe I'm too optimistic but I don't understand all the doom and gloom for 2025. If we go off the complete worst case scenario then Smith and Walker will be back in Round 11 but the best case scenario could see Walker turn up in the earlier rounds of 2025, according to NRL physio Smith is done until Round 11 no matter what though.

Even with both of those players gone we'll still have key rep/former rep stars such as Teddy, Young, Leniu, Watson, Collins, Crichton and Radley to heavily rely on whilst May, Wong and Whyte have looked good this year, veteran players such as Nat Butcher and Daniel Tupou will be big helps whilst healthy Billy Smith, Mark Nawaqanitawase and Robert Toia could be anything as well.

The halves combination is the weakest part of the team but Sandon Smith will have been preparing to take the 6 jersey all this year and will continue to do so all pre season leading into 2025, he was solid enough in the finals as well. Chad Townsend despite being 34 years old is solid enough to trust for the games Walker is gone for especially since just 2 seasons ago he was in a team that was 4 points off making the grand final which is closer than we have come in the past 5 years.

Obviously pure speculation but I think we'll finish around 6th or 7th, probably beat one of the weaker teams in the opening round of the finals and then lose in week 2, 2026 is the year I think we'll be a genuine premiership contender.

So what happened to the war chest and that $3.5 million we had to spend according to Buzz and Co?

There weren't that many players available for us this year in positions we needed to fill. Apparently we chased Holmes but he wanted too much money, Luai was looking for too much money and that was kind of it for key players in positions we need.

2026 there are plenty of key players off contract though. Reece Walsh, Kotoni Staggs, Clint Gutherson, Daine Laurie, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Ben Hunt, Cherry-Evans, Reece Robson, Kamikamica and many more. 2026 I think we'll pick up 2-3 star players, have some key juniors dominate in 2025 and we'll be back in business.

[Bates]

Maybe I'm too optimistic but I don't understand all the doom and gloom for 2025. If we go off the complete worst case scenario then Smith and Walker will be back in Round 11 but the best case scenario could see Walker turn up in the earlier rounds of 2025, according to NRL physio Smith is done until Round 11 no matter what though.

Even with both of those players gone we'll still have key rep/former rep stars such as Teddy, Young, Leniu, Watson, Collins, Crichton and Radley to heavily rely on whilst May, Wong and Whyte have looked good this year, veteran players such as Nat Butcher and Daniel Tupou will be big helps whilst healthy Billy Smith, Mark Nawaqanitawase and Robert Toia could be anything as well.

The halves combination is the weakest part of the team but Sandon Smith will have been preparing to take the 6 jersey all this year and will continue to do so all pre season leading into 2025, he was solid enough in the finals as well. Chad Townsend despite being 34 years old is solid enough to trust for the games Walker is gone for especially since just 2 seasons ago he was in a team that was 4 points off making the grand final which is closer than we have come in the past 5 years.

Obviously pure speculation but I think we'll finish around 6th or 7th, probably beat one of the weaker teams in the opening round of the finals and then lose in week 2, 2026 is the year I think we'll be a genuine premiership contender.



There weren't that many players available for us this year in positions we needed to fill. Apparently we chased Holmes but he wanted too much money, Luai was looking for too much money and that was kind of it for key players in positions we need.

2026 there are plenty of key players off contract though. Reece Walsh, Kotoni Staggs, Clint Gutherson, Daine Laurie, Ryan Papenhuyzen, Ben Hunt, Cherry-Evans, Reece Robson, Kamikamica and many more. 2026 I think we'll pick up 2-3 star players, have some key juniors dominate in 2025 and we'll be back in business.

I'd give Luai $1.2 mill a year. He can play 6 or 7, loves to run and engage the line. This is something we've missed in recent times! He also has a reasonable boot. and is no speed hump.

Major knob however he's won 4 comps and always steps up in big games. Best 6 in the NRL imo.

[roosterchook]

We have good depth compared to a lot of teams. And we’ve got the Vaa brothers coming through. And Mark and Young and Toups know their way to the try line. I agree our halves will be a temporary problem but only for part of the season. Still there’s Angus, Teddy and hopefully Collins hits some form.Still definite top 8 with possible top 4 if we can fix defense and discipline but can Robbo do that? I’m confident in 2025. We lost Manu who wasn’t in good form, JWH mostly suspended now we can expect a stronger team. Leniu is another top player. And then Radley, Smith and Watson! Well do great.

[MKCS]

I'd give Luai $1.2 mill a year. He can play 6 or 7, loves to run and engage the line. This is something we've missed in recent times! He also has a reasonable boot. and is no speed hump.

Major knob however he's won 4 comps and always steps up in big games. Best 6 in the NRL imo.

I think it would've been a case of we'd need to pick either Luai or Walker. If we're putting a million into Walker and 1.2 million into Luai then we'd be weaker in other areas. I do think a half will become available at that 600-800k mark which is what the club seems more comfortable paying a half.

[King Salvo]

Are front loaded contracts allowed as I recall they banned back ended contracts

[HDTONE]

I'd give Luai $1.2 mill a year. He can play 6 or 7, loves to run and engage the line.

Agree to an extent as long as he's got the hunger still after 4 GF rings. See how he goes at Wests with Lachie (who has potential)

[King Salvo]

Luai signed a 6 mill 5 year contract with Wests Tigers - There is also a TPA - Shhhhh

[King Salvo]

Total salary cap for 2025 is $11,800,000. You must spend 97.5%. Net amount available the following year if you spend 97.5% of your salary cap for 2025 would be $295,000.

You can't carry over any unspent cap - must spend 97.5% - the case of use it or lose it.

[ism22]

Wasn't 2016 characterised by...

- RTS walking out on us for $$$ after we groomed him to replace Mini (was frigging annoying TBH!!! IMO it was way more than he was worth and all off the back of our 2013 success, where he slotted into a champion side as a zippy youngster with a mad goosie).

- Slime Ankle didn't play a single first grade game. Still not sure who or what the Slime Ankle was. One of SBW's mates who was good enough to be NYC player of the year and NSW Cup player of the year on natural talent but needed 'nicotine patches on his knees' according to jokes on his socials (a reference to him smoking heaps of durries and having shoddy knees?)

- Pearce getting a ridiculously long suspension which completely destabilised us as we got a boot load of media attention.

- Hastings and Nikorima trying to be our halves... both having zero maturity... then Robbo basically just saying 'KEEP IT SIMPLE FFS!!!' and getting Watson to play in the halves (with no goal kicking option)... purely as a ball runner... and as a direct F-U to Hastings to say 'I told you I'd pick him if you argued with me too much!!! Wasn't kidding!!!'

- Hendo got a terrible injury pretty much straight away. Yes he was a stop-gap player but it further hurt our already non-existent t depth.

- Joe Burgess didn't work.

- Vinnie Leiluai had a crazy injury.

- Cornish and McIlwrick weren't great.

- Latrell was not ready.

We ended up avoiding the spoon somehow by ending the season with an ultra-conservative brand of footy with no kicking or clever moves.

---

IMO it was a perfect storm of suspensions / media madness, people walking out, anointed replacements not clicking and experimental signings offering absolutely nothing.

Will 2025 be like this? No. Not saying I have a crystal ball or that we'll carve up. But like... 2016 was special.